Distributional Consequences of a Higher Inflation Target

Abstract

This paper investigates the aggregate and the distributional consequences of raising the inflation target from 2% to 4% using a HANK (Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian) model. We find that, during the transition towards the 4% inflation target, the economy experiences substantial expansion because of the forward-looking Phillips curve and the Taylor rule that features a significant degree of interest rate smoothing. Also, the transition reduces the overall degree of inequality by lowering the unemployment rate and the real interest rate though it leaves bigger welfare gains for the top than for the middle. During the simulation around the new steady-state with the 4% inflation target, both frequency and duration of the ELB episodes are lower. Importantly, the average unemployment rate and its standard deviation are significantly lower with the higher inflation target, which leads to higher aggregate demand and lower overall inequality on average.

Dohyeon Park
2024 Economics Ph.D. Applicant

Dohyeon Park is an 2024 Economics Ph.D. program applicant. Dohyeon Park has research interests in Macroeconomics.

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